Starting today, China is applying provisional anti-dumping duties ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on a broad range of dairy products imported from the European Union. The measure, announced by Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce, is a direct retaliation for the EU tariffs introduced in 2024 on Chinese-made electric vehicles, which Brussels says benefit from state subsidies.
The duty level varies by company. According to Chinese authorities, the lowest rate (21.9%) applies to Italy’s Sterilgarda. Around a dozen French companies face duties of 29.7%, while about 50 firms across Italy, France, and Germany are subject to a 28.6% rate. The maximum rate of 42.7% will be imposed on European companies that did not respond to the investigation launched by Beijing more than a year ago.
The Chinese probe—opened at the request of the China Dairy Industry Association—will formally conclude on 21 February. However, preliminary findings, the Ministry of Commerce said, point to a link between European subsidies and “material injury” to China’s dairy industry, thereby justifying the provisional measures.
THE WEIGHT OF CHINA FOR EU AND ITALIAN EXPORTS
Overall, the EU is China’s second-largest supplier of dairy products, after New Zealand. China is also the second destination for EU skimmed milk powder exports and the fourth for butter.
For Italy, however, China remains a relatively small market: it accounts for about 2% of total global cheese exports, worth an estimated €70 million. Each year, Italy exports roughly 11,500 tonnes of cheese to China, 85% of which are fresh products—including mascarpone, burrata, mozzarella, and stracciatella—according to Assolatte. For major PDO cheeses such as Grana Padano and Parmigiano Reggiano, China is still a marginal outlet.
Despite the limited direct exposure, concerns across the sector are widespread. China is now Italy’s third-largest non-EU market for cheese exports, after the United States and Japan, and demand has grown by 140% over the past five years—a trend that could now be abruptly disrupted.
INDUSTRY REACTIONS
“We are tired of being the scapegoat for decisions taken to protect sectors that have nothing to do with us,” said Paolo Zanetti, president of Assolatte, recalling how the dairy sector has already paid the price of past trade tensions, from the Boeing–Airbus dispute to the Russian embargo.
Coldiretti also voiced strong concern, noting that cheese is Italy’s second most exported food product to China after wine. According to the farmers’ association, Beijing’s move risks fueling a new phase of trade war with knock-on effects for European agri-food exports.
Confagricoltura highlighted potential indirect effects: “This barrier risks diverting larger volumes of product onto the domestic market, with a possible squeeze on company margins.” The association also questioned the legitimacy of the measures, arguing that the contested subsidies fall within the support framework of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy.
BRUSSELS PUSHES BACK
The European Commission said it was “taking note with concern” of China’s decision. Olof Gill, the Commission’s deputy chief spokesperson, described Beijing’s investigation as based on “questionable claims and insufficient evidence,” calling the measures “unjustified.” Brussels will file a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization to challenge their legality.
Against a backdrop of falling milk prices in Europe due to oversupply, and ongoing trade tensions with the United States and Russia, China’s new dairy tariffs add another layer of uncertainty for a strategic segment of the European agri-food industry.
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